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On a fundamental basis, the damage to EPS in Q4 isn’t really that bad as the midpoint of EPS was lowered by 9%. I’m not saying that’s something that should be dismissed but given all of the things that apparently went wrong in Q4, the damage could have been much worse. And with 2016 not exactly a banner year, Target is still going to do $5 in EPS. That puts the stock at 13 times earnings under a pretty tough scenario and given its ability to return capital, there could be some upside over time for patient investors. With Target continuing to do $5 or better in FCF as well, dividends and buybacks are here to stay. Investments in the online business aren’t done and likely won’t be for a long time but this company produces enough cash to pay for them and much more. In addition, the heavy lifting with respect to the online business is done; incremental investments should be good enough going forward. Over time, TGT can reduce the float and boost EPS that way as well as paying its now-prodigious dividend. My Q3 call for a turnaround was obviously wrong and I’ll own that one, but I don’t think Target should be thrown away at $65 after what was a disappointing but not disastrous Q4.
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